WAR-GAME

Export-control enforcement wave: 8 firms go dark, taking 195 downstream firms with them, including 4 DoD-exposed suppliers, wiping out 32 segments.

Trigger

Every firm currently on a tracked restricted list (OFAC SDN, BIS Entity List, NDAA Sec. 1260H) is simultaneously and fully cut off from its US-linked buyers.

Assumption

Assumes simultaneous, complete enforcement across every already-flagged entity — in reality enforcement is staggered and licensing exceptions sometimes apply. The 8 cut firms are the 3 largest sanctioned names by market cap plus the 5 with the widest supply-chain reach among the rest — not a ranked top-8 by any single measure. Note: sanctioned firms with no public market cap and no recorded DOWNSTREAM (customer) edges in this graph score zero transitive reach and can be left out even though they are the namesake of the sanctions regime. Huawei/HiSilicon are the clearest case: a 2026-08-09 pass added cited upstream supplier edges (SMIC — TechInsights Kirin 9000s teardown; Sophgo — TrendForce, the DOC-confirmed TSMC diversion case), but every citable public source found describes firms Huawei/HiSilicon depend ON, not firms that depend on THEM — so their downstream reach is still zero. That is a real, still-open graph-coverage gap, not a selection bug.

Question

If today's sanctions list were enforced all at once, who actually goes dark downstream — is the real exposure concentrated or diffuse?

• InnoLight Technology194 tracks · 4 DoD
• SMIC194 tracks · 4 DoD
• NAURA Technology197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Kingsemi197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Piotech197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Shanghai Micro Electronics (SMEE)197 tracks · 4 DoD
• Zhongke Feice Technology197 tracks · 4 DoD
• AMEC (Advanced Micro-Fabrication)195 tracks · 4 DoD