WAR-GAME

What if several tracks go dark together? Union of blast radii with shortest-tier attribution. Run a named scenario or cut a custom set of tracks — lead demos here after single-node Blast Radius.

TAIWAN-STRAIT

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Taiwan Strait closure

Taiwan Strait closure: 8 firms go dark, taking 239 downstream firms with them, including 4 DoD-exposed suppliers, wiping out 34 segments.

Trigger

A blockade or military closure of the Taiwan Strait cuts off shipping and air transit to and from Taiwan-based fabs and assembly/test houses.

Assumption

Assumes total loss of output from Taiwan-headquartered firms for the duration of the closure — no drawdown of buyer inventory, no emergency re-routing to other fabs. The 8 cut firms are the 3 largest Taiwan-HQ names by market cap plus the 5 with the widest supply-chain reach among the rest — not a ranked top-8 by any single measure.

Question

How much of the defense electronics supply base sits behind a single contested strait, and which DoD-exposed firms have no alternative source today?

Sources cut

239

Tracks hit

DoD exposed

200

Overlap

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Per-source blast (alone)

TSMC194 tracks · 4 DoD
Delta Electronics60 tracks · 1 DoD
Hon Hai (Foxconn)19 tracks · 1 DoD
Chang Wah Technology205 tracks · 4 DoD
Powertech Technology (PTI)199 tracks · 4 DoD
Wafer Works198 tracks · 4 DoD
Chroma ATE197 tracks · 4 DoD
GlobalWafers196 tracks · 4 DoD

Track Goes Dark

TSMC + Delta Electronics + Hon Hai (Foxconn) + Chang Wah Technology + Powertech Technology (PTI) + Wafer Works + Chroma ATE + GlobalWafers

239 tracks downstream

→

Tier 1 · direct140

Marvell Technology83

United StatesDoD $184.3M

GlobalFoundries53