WAR-GAME
What if several tracks go dark together? Union of blast radii with shortest-tier attribution. Run a named scenario or cut a custom set of tracks — lead demos here after single-node Blast Radius.
EUV-CHOKE
Lithography chokepoint failure
Lithography chokepoint failure: 7 firms go dark, taking 199 downstream firms with them, including 4 DoD-exposed suppliers, wiping out 32 segments.
- The handful of firms that make advanced lithography systems (the machines that print circuit patterns onto wafers) lose the ability to ship or service equipment.
- Assumes total loss of lithography-tool supply and service — no drawdown of spare parts inventory, no substitution across tool vendors (their tools are not interchangeable). The cut set is the 3 largest lithography makers by market cap plus the rest ranked by supply-chain reach, capped at 8 — with only 7 lithography firms in the graph, this scenario cuts all of them.
- Lithography is the narrowest chokepoint in the entire chip supply chain — how far does that narrowness actually reach downstream?
Trigger
Assumption
Question
7
Sources cut
199
Tracks hit
4
DoD exposed
197
Overlap
Per-source blast (alone)
- ASML197 tracks · 4 DoD
- Canon196 tracks · 4 DoD
- Nikon195 tracks · 4 DoD
- TRUMPF198 tracks · 4 DoD
- Carl Zeiss SMT198 tracks · 4 DoD
- Shanghai Micro Electronics (SMEE)197 tracks · 4 DoD
- Ushio195 tracks · 4 DoD
Track Goes Dark
ASML + Canon + Nikon + TRUMPF + Carl Zeiss SMT + Shanghai Micro Electronics (SMEE) + Ushio
199 tracks downstream
→
Tier 1 · direct10
Tier 2 · indirect131
Tier 3 · indirect56
Scale AI24
United StatesDoD $105.6M
InnoLight Technology76
China
Eoptolink Technology59
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Accelink Technologies58
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CoreWeave56
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New H3C54
China
Applied Digital48
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IREN48
Australia
HIVE Digital Technologies47
Canada
Nscale47
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Lumentum Holdings47
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Coherent47
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+44 more
Tier 4 · indirect2