WAR-GAME
What if several tracks go dark together? Union of blast radii with shortest-tier attribution. Run a named scenario or cut a custom set of tracks — lead demos here after single-node Blast Radius.
A blockade or military closure of the Taiwan Strait cuts off shipping and air transit to and from Taiwan-based fabs and assembly/test houses.
Every firm currently on a tracked restricted list (OFAC SDN, BIS Entity List, NDAA Sec. 1260H) is simultaneously and fully cut off from its US-linked buyers.
A full trade decoupling from mainland China and Hong Kong severs commercial ties with every China/HK-headquartered firm in the supply chain.
The handful of firms that make advanced lithography systems (the machines that print circuit patterns onto wafers) lose the ability to ship or service equipment.
An export restriction or trade dispute cuts off the upstream materials layer — silicon wafers, substrates, photoresists, specialty gases, sputtering targets.
The mirror image of the other scenarios: China restricts materials exports to the West instead of the West restricting sales to China. China's Ministry of Commerce has run an escalating sequence since late 2024 — a December 2024 ban on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite exports to the US; an April 2025 licensing regime covering seven rare-earth elements and related magnets; an October 2025 rule extending licensing to any foreign-made product containing more than 0.1% China-origin rare-earth content; a partial suspension of that extraterritorial rule in November 2025 as part of a trade truce; and a June-July 2026 re-escalation applying licensing requirements to additional EU-headquartered firms.